InnovestX Sees Market Optimism as Oil Prices Weaken, Flags Caution on US-Iran Negotiations and MSCI Rebalance

published 8 d ago · en · source ↗

Affected tickers

Per-ticker News Sentiment Indicator

AAVmacro · positive · med
The brokerage identifies AAV as a beneficiary of declining oil prices, which are expected to improve airline operating costs.
BGRIMmacro · positive · med
InnovestX identifies BGRIM as a beneficiary of declining oil prices, which are expected to support the company's operational costs.
GPSCmacro · positive · med
InnovestX identifies GPSC as a beneficiary of declining oil prices, which supports the company's operational costs and overall market sentiment.
ORmacro · negative · med
The decline in oil prices, driven by U.S.-Iran negotiations, negatively impacts OR as the company's core business is sensitive to fuel price fluctuations.
SCCmacro · positive · med
InnovestX identifies SCC as a beneficiary of declining oil prices and a strengthened Thai baht, which are expected to support the company's performance.

Article body

Mr. Pobchai Phatrawit, Equity and Digital Asset Strategist at InnovestX Securities, stated on the ‘Kaohoon’ program on May 25, 2026, that the overall outlook for the Thai stock market is expected to improve in the early part of the week. This positive momentum is supported by progress in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, which have eased concerns over the Middle East conflict and contributed to a significant decline in oil prices. The brokerage assessed that the SET Index could potentially surpass its previous high at around 1,545 points, with an upper range target at 1,555–1,560 points and a support level at 1,530 points. Meanwhile, the overall sentiment in Asian equity markets remains positive, buoyed by the continued weakness in oil prices. However, InnovestX warns of closely monitoring the ongoing U.S.-Iran talks, as there remains a risk of unresolved negotiations, especially regarding the unblocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the demands related to Iran’s nuclear program. The United States is seeking Iran’s agreement to export uranium out of the country, a condition not yet accepted by Iran’s Supreme Leader. Additionally, the market may experience volatility during the mid- to late-week period due to the revision of the MSCI Index, which will become effective at the close of trading on May 29, 2026. It is estimated that this rebalancing will lead to a net outflow of approximately THB 8.6 billion from the Thai stock market, primarily due to portfolio adjustments by passive funds, although some active funds may have already anticipated these changes and reallocated in advance. For short-term investment strategies, the brokerage recommends speculative trading in anti-commodity stocks or companies that benefit from declining oil prices, as well as those likely to gain from a strengthened Thai baht. This includes sectors such as airlines ( AAV and THAI ), small power producers and utilities ( BGRIM and GPSC ), construction materials and packaging ( SCC and SCGP ), and tourism ( MINT and ERW ). Concurrently, investors can also consider speculative opportunities in stocks poised to benefit from the newly launched ‘Thai Chuay Thai Plus’ stimulus program, particularly as registration opens today. Notable sectors include retail ( CPALL and CPAXT ) and food and beverage ( CBG and OSP ).