Bualuang Raises 2026 Revenue Forecast for THCOM on Clearer Growth Catalysts

Following the official release of the Terms of Reference (TOR) for the third phase of the Universal Service Obligation (USO Phase 3) project by the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission (NBTC) on May 27, 2026, Bualuang Securities (BLS) has revised its recommendation for Thaicom Public Company Limited (SET: THCOM ) to ‘Trading Buy.’ The new target price has been adjusted to THB 13.00 per share as significant catalysts for the company are becoming more apparent, particularly the re-opening of the USO Phase 3 bidding process after it was previously canceled in March this year. The project, valued at approximately THB 5.5 billion over a five-year contract, is divided into five regional lots, with bids to be submitted via the e-bidding system on June 29, 2026. The clarity in the auction timeline is seen as a major positive development, alleviating investor concerns over the risk of further delays—a recurring issue in the past—and is expected to be a significant factor supporting THCOM’s future performance. Bualuang estimates that THCOM has a strong chance of securing contracts worth around THB 2.2 to 2.5 billion from this project. This includes revenue from system construction work, amounting to approximately THB 1 billion, which is expected to be recognized on a front-loaded basis: about half in the second half of 2026 and the remainder in early 2027. The net profit margin for this segment is forecast at 9-10%, contributing an estimated net profit of THB 45 to 50 million. Construction revenue is expected to be an important driver for THCOM’s financial recovery, especially from the fourth quarter of 2026 onwards. Additionally, the company has an opportunity to generate recurring maintenance revenue totaling approximately THB 1.2 to 1.5 billion over the five-year contract term. This recurring income will further strengthen the company’s long-term revenue base and provide greater stability. Furthermore, THCOM is supported by two additional positive factors. First, its THCOM 9 satellite is progressing ahead of market expectations, with likely launch before the first half of 2027, dispelling earlier concerns over potential delays. In the interim, THCOM can extend the service life of its THCOM 4 satellite by an additional year, maintaining revenue and margins from its legacy business and reducing the need to lease satellite capacity from foreign providers—thereby mitigating core business risks. Another positive development is the Amazon LEO project, where THCOM will play a role as both system installation contractor and service distributor in Thailand, enabling the company to recognize both initial construction revenue and long-term commission income from ongoing services. Given these positive drivers, Bualuang has raised its 2026 revenue estimate for THCOM by 41% to THB 3.2 billion. Although the gross profit margin is projected to decrease modestly—from 31% to about 29%—due to the proportion of lower-margin construction revenue, net profit is still expected to grow by 21% to reach THB 715 million. This more optimistic outlook for THCOM is attributed to the market’s increasing recognition of clearer growth catalysts, previously seen only as potential opportunities, particularly the USO Phase 3 project and new satellite initiatives with definite timelines. As such, there is now greater potential for a market re-rating of THCOM in the near future.