Finansia Remains Positive on Central Retail From Improved GPM and Cost Control

Finansia Syrus Securities has maintained a positive outlook for Central Retail Corporation Public Company Limited (SET: CRC ), assessing that the impact from the uncertainty caused by the Iran war remains limited, while the trend for profitability is continuously improving. The securities firm projects that in 2026, same-store sales growth (SSSG) is likely to expand by about 4 – 5%. The gross profit margin (GPM) is expected to improve year-on-year, with the selling and administrative expenses to revenue (SG&A/Revenue) ratio at around 26.3%. Core EBITDA is forecasted to grow by about 5 – 7%, driven by improved operating efficiencies across several business segments. The profit recovery is supported by a better gross profit margin, especially through organic operations. The fashion segment is benefiting from inventory management, clearance sales, provisioning, and the addition of new brands. The food segment, particularly wholesale and Food Vietnam, is seeing improvements due to ongoing operational enhancements. The effect of war remains limited, resulting in an increase in electricity costs of around THB 5 million per month and higher transport costs, which remain manageable. However, there is still a need to monitor the indirect impact on consumer purchasing power in the second half of 2026. Finansia has revised up CRC’s core profit forecasts for 2026–2028, reflecting higher GPM, improved interest expenses, and better-than-expected operating performance in the first half. The broker expects the company’s 2026 profit to grow by approximately 10.6% compared to last year. CRC’s SSSG in 2Q26 is expected to grow by around 2–3% year-on-year, following recovery in all business segments. For the full year 2026, net profit growth is expected to continue, driven by normal operations and decreasing interest burden. The brokerage firm maintains a “Buy” recommendation for CRC with a target price of THB 24 per share, based on the DCF method (WACC 7.2% and Terminal Growth 2%). The analyst estimates that this price level reflects a 2026 P/E ratio of about 17.6 times, while also noting continued long-term support from international growth, especially in Vietnam. Hence, it retains a positive outlook on CRC.